AFTER an off-season like none other, there is genuine uncertainty around how the 2024 Repco Supercars Championship will play out.
Three-time Supercars champion Shane van Gisbergen is gone for the foreseeable future, with his first full NASCAR campaign kicking off on the weekend at Daytona.
Brodie Kostecki, the inaugural Gen3 champion, will also be absent from Round 1 at Mount Panorama this coming weekend and may not drive at all this year amid a falling out with Erebus Motorsport.
Missing one round does not preclude him from championship calculations – take for example how Jamie Whincup won the 2008 title despite failing to start any of the three races that year in Hamilton – but it certainly doesn’t help, especially when there is no resolution in sight.
There’s also been a near unprecedented shuffling of seats within the paddock, highlighted by the fact just two teams will take in an unchanged primary driver line-up: Dick Johnson Racing and PremiAir Racing.
Then there’s the parity factor, which is hoped to have been neutralised after extensive efforts across the summer.
So, where does that leave things?
In this writer’s opinion, Cam Waters and Broc Feeney are the best hopes for Ford and Chevrolet.
That’s a view not shared by bookmakers; TAB has installed Feeney’s Triple Eight teammate Will Brown as the overall favourite at $3.50, and has Chaz Mostert as Ford’s leading candidate at $5.50 (full list below).
None of that quartet has won a championship before, and for Waters and Mostert, their teams haven’t tasted title glory since 2015 and 2002, respectively (counting only the Holden Racing Team as Walkinshaw Andretti United’s predecessor).
In fact, the only two champions on the Thrifty Bathurst 500 grid will be Team 18’s Mark Winterbottom and the Blanchard Racing Team’s James Courtney.
Neither is expected to really contend for the top gong, but who else can?
For all its recent turmoil, Erebus still does have the same crew and philosophies that underpinned its 2023 successes, and Jack Le Brocq has not been backward in setting his sights high.
Le Brocq does thus far only have two race wins to his name, though, while teammate Todd Hazelwood is yet to get off the mark.
Elsewhere in Chevrolet land, can Andre Heimgartner and Brad Jones Racing take the next step? Or will it be reinvigorated Team 18 and its recruit David Reynolds taking the intra-Camaro fight to Triple Eight?
Back on the Ford side, can the stability of fourth-year teammates Will Davison and Anton De Pasquale drive DJR back into the picture?
And what to make of Grove Racing? The Braeside squad started to last year transfer its vast potential into results, winning two of the final three races of the season.
The big question mark is probably around how much to expect of its drivers, with Matt Payne only embarking on his second campaign and Richie Stanaway back for his first full season since 2019. Both are super-fast, but consistency will be key for a title tilt.
Those who first and foremost will be looking to take advantage of the live pitlane concept to move up the pecking order will be beefed-up PremiAir, Matt Stone Racing (which has recruited race winner Nick Percat), and the expanded BRT.
The first signs of answers are just days away.
Full 2024 Supercars championship odds, per TAB (as at February 19)
$3.50 Will Brown
$3.75 Broc Feeney
$3.75 Brodie Kostecki
$5.50 Chaz Mostert
$6 Cam Waters
$10 Jack Le Brocq
$13 Todd Hazelwood
$15 Will Davison
$17 Matt Payne
$17 Anton De Pasquale
$19 David Reynolds
$21 Andre Heimgartner
$26 Thomas Randle
$31 Richie Stanaway
$51 James Golding
$61 Mark Winterbottom
$67 Tim Slade
$81 James Courtney
$101 Bryce Fullwood
$151 Nick Percat
$401 Cameron Hill
$501 Macauley Jones
$1001 Aaron Love
$1001 Ryan Wood
$1001 Jaxon Evans
