THE battle for the 2023 Repco Supercars Championship is now a two-man showdown.
Bathurst-winner Shane van Gisbergen is the only driver with a realistic shot of burgling the trophy from long-time leader Brodie Kostecki.
But a second-place finish for the Erebus driver at Bathurst meant his Triple Eight rival only gained 24 points, leaving the margin at 131.
There are four races remaining across the Gold Coast 500 (October 27-29) and Adelaide 500 (November 24-26), each worth 150 points.
The simplest equation is that, if van Gisbergen wins every race from here, Kostecki must only finish fourth in each to claim the title.
However, a single DNF – or lowly result – for Kostecki at either of the notoriously treacherous street circuits could instantly flip the battle on its head.
Despite the delicate nature of the situation, Kostecki isn’t deviating from his simple and blunt game-plan.
“Try and win the next four races, that’s pretty much it,” he said in the aftermath of the Bathurst 1000.
Asked if banking valuable points at Bathurst eased the pain of defeat in the Great Race, he was equally short, adding: “Not really, I want to win races.”
Kostecki has won six races this year to van Gisbergen’s five.
It would have been six-all had the two Triple Eight Camaros not been disqualified from the season-opener in Newcastle.
Losing those 150 points was incredibly costly and put the Kiwi on the backfoot.
He’s not led the standings all year, while Kostecki took the lead at Albert Park in April and only briefly lost it to teammate Will Brown amid gearbox troubles at Townsville in July.
Kostecki has finished every race in 2023; his Erebus team having worked to fix broken steering and salvage points at both Symmons Plains and Hidden Valley.
His Kiwi rival has a single DNF – a crash at the Tasmanian circuit that compounded his Newcastle non-score.
Van Gisbergen, of course, is already a three-time champion – in 2016, 2021 and 2022 – and is looking for one last title before departing to the United States and NASCAR.
But he’s not been behind with two rounds to go and won it. In fact, in the last two years, he had it wrapped up with a round to spare.
“Anything can happen,” he says, amid a title challenge that has come despite lamenting the feel of the Gen3 cars.
“There are four races left and obviously Brodie is doing very well, he doesn’t make many mistakes and, as you have to be, on a bad day he’s still in the top-five.
“He’s an awesome driver. Their raw speed is definitely better than ours, our race pace is always pretty close.
“Gold Coast is one of my better tracks and Adelaide is OK, so hopefully we can put some pressure on them.”
Pressure may well be key and what role their respective teammates will play remains to be seen.
Brown and Broc Feeney are still mathematical contenders, as is Walkinshaw Andretti United’s Chaz Mostert.
Feeney had entered the Great Race third in the standings, 204 behind Kostecki, but slumped to fourth and 408 adrift thanks to his Bathurst heartbreak.
Eighth-place for Brown at Bathurst moved him past Feeney, but ballooned the deficit to Kostecki from 294 to 390.
Both may well play back-up roles to the protagonists from here, although Brown’s impending move to Triple Eight for 2024 is a curious subplot to the scenario.
There’s a teams’ championship to fight for too.
Erebus currently leads 4504 points to 4325 over Triple Eight – a gap that grew handsomely thanks to Feeney’s Bathurst woe.
And what of WAU Ford driver Chaz Mostert?
Fifth in the standings and 547 points adrift after a fourth-place at Bathurst, he’s technically in contention, but realistically knew long ago that a maiden title would not be forthcoming.
At 220 points ahead of sixth-placed Andre Heimgartner and 328 clear of Anton De Pasquale in seventh, Mostert is poised for a top-five finish and the honour of top Ford.
His campaign across the Gold Coast and Adelaide, events where the Mustangs should have an upgraded aero package to play with, will be about pride only.
But all eyes will be on Kostecki and van Gisbergen across the final two rounds, in what could produce the first true title showdown in five years.
